Are You Prepared to Lead in Today's BANI World?

Just as the pandemic was starting, discussions about living in a VUCA world gained momentum in coaching circles. Most of us had no idea that we were already transitioning from VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) to BANI (brittle, anxious, non-linear, and incomprehensible). The BANI framework was introduced in 2018 by futurist James Cascio. Here is a brief definition of the terms as explained by Cascio:

Understanding BANI

B is for Brittle. "Systems that are brittle can appear strong, even work well, until they suddenly collapse. Brittle does not bend; it breaks. Very often, the breaking point isn’t visible, at least to most people, and comes as a surprise."

A is for Anxious or Anxiety-Producing. "My usual example of an anxiety-creating system is misinformation, which can be political, but can also be economic or even personal. Misinformation often relies on technological tools, but the importance doesn’t come from the technology; it comes from the human response."

N is for Non-linear. "In BANI, non-linear refers to systems that see changes that don’t match expectations built on familiar reality."

I is for Incomprehensible. "...what I mean here is that, when something is incomprehensible, its details or processes are thoroughly opaque, with difficult or incomplete explanations."

This is the world we are living in, according to Cascio. Do any of these descriptors resonate with you or your organization? If so, how are you leading in response to what you see?

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Leading in a BANI World

In a recent session, I spoke with a leader about team members who were not taking the initiative on projects for which they were responsible. These were seasoned leaders who knew what they were doing, but my client sensed that people were waiting to be told what to do. We explored this mindset from the perspective of BANI. "Could they be concerned about making a mistake?" I asked. "Would a mistake put their positions at risk?" I probed. In the current environment, concern about losing a job could cause the innovators in your organization to “play it safe.”

The Impact of Fear

What about you? Are you approaching your work with a safe, tentative mindset because something could go wrong? I'm not here to tell you that everything will work out as planned. I want to ask if you are flexible enough to pivot when outcomes don't match projections. Here are four mindsets leaders can cultivate to navigate a BANI environment:

Cultivating Resilience

Resilience. Some systems that we believed couldn’t break have broken (healthcare, supply chain, profit margins, job security). Fostering a mindset of resilience prepares you to stay whole even if the system you have trusted breaks. Resilience allows you to bend, unlike the brittle system that breaks. According to Cascio, “Brittle chaos is sudden, surprising, and hard to ignore.” This means as a leader, you should be looking for opportunities to anticipate and build BEFORE a crisis happens.

Setting Boundaries

Boundaries. Guard your time and mind from potential misinformation as much as possible. Decades ago, I had a mantra: "I take my news with coffee in the morning, and then I'm done until maybe 6:00." We are now buffeted by a 24-hour news cycle. Rather than consuming information around the clock, set boundaries on when and how long you will watch the news, and then go outside! Reboot your brain by gardening, listening to nature, or connecting with others for laughter and conversation away from screens. Practice empathy with yourself and others who may be experiencing anxiety.

Embracing Innovation

Innovation. Strategize to the best of your ability but hold the plans loosely. Model the ability to pivot when plans change. Involving your team in the strategic process brings the best of what you have to the table. However, when factors outside your control impact the outcome, acknowledge the time to shift as soon as you know. The world as we know it has changed, and what used to be a ‘sure thing’ is often now 'up for discussion.' How can you and your team improvise in an environment where things don’t go as planned?

Trusting Your Intuition

Intuition (Gut Sense). Recognize that much of what we see as "incomprehensible" cannot be explained in traditional terms. In one of my past careers, I was responsible for providing variance reports quarterly in the publishing field where I worked. If paper costs were higher, it meant higher than anticipated print and production costs. Easily explainable, right? Now, however, explanations might include the effect of tariffs, supply chain disruptions, or staff shortages that lead to higher wages, all affecting costs. The incomprehensible is out of your control, but you have something no other being has – your intuition. What is your gut telling you to do in your current incomprehensible situation? Take some time to quiet the noise and listen to your gut.

Conclusion

The world may be in BANI mode, but you as a leader don't have to be. Next time, we'll look at a newly-identified leadership style called "Futurecaster."

Michele Aikens is CEO & Lead Coach of Clear Sight Coaching & Consulting Inc.